Lula re-elected, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's runoff

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party, PT) was re-elected on Sunday (Oct. 25) and will serve a fourth term. He defeated Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party, PL) in a runoff in which the lead changed hands several times during the night. According to coverage of the count, the outcome became mathematically certain at around 9 p.m. Brasília time, when the remaining ballots could no longer reverse it. Pollster Datafolha had projected Lula's win minutes earlier.

In the latest partial tally from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) reviewed by our newsroom, with 91.95% of polling stations counted, Lula had 51.62% of valid votes to Flávio's 48.38%. The gap exceeded 3.69 million votes. Figures will keep changing until the count is complete.

• Lula (PT): 51.62% of valid votes, about 58.7 million votes
• Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 48.38% of valid votes, about 55 million votes
• Margin: about 3.69 million votes
• Abstention: 19.04%
• Blank votes: 1.11%
• Null votes: 2.10%
• Polling stations counted: 91.95% (partial TSE tally)

A reversal of the first round and the polls

The result overturns the Oct. 4 first round, when Flávio finished ahead with 47.03% of valid votes (56.1 million) to Lula's 45.16% (53.9 million). It is the first time a candidate who came second in the first round has won Brazil's presidency. Abstention also fell, from 21.08% in the first round to just over 19% in the runoff.

The final polls pointed the other way, within the margin of error. Datafolha and Quaest, both conducted Oct. 23–24, showed Flávio at 51% of valid votes and Lula at 49%, a statistical tie with a two-point margin. AtlasIntel, released Oct. 19, had the senator ahead 51.1% to 48.9%.

The count was overshadowed by a ruling from Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin extending voting to 7 p.m. nationwide, after Lula's coalition complained of bus shortages in Bahia. The TSE said only polling stations still open should remain open. Flávio's allies criticized the measure, and analysts expect legal challenges.

Statements

When voting in the morning, Lula said he would respect the result whoever won. Flávio, who voted in Rio de Janeiro, said the time for change had come. As of publication, our newsroom had not found reliable reports of what either candidate said after the result was settled.

Governors elected in runoffs

• Federal District: Celina Leão (PP), re-elected with about 57% of valid votes
• Tocantins: Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB), elected with about 64% over Professora Dorinha (União)
• Acre: Mailza Assis (PP), re-elected over Alan Rick (Republicanos)
• Amazonas: Omar Aziz (PSD), elected over Professora Maria do Carmo (PL)
• Espírito Santo: Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos), elected over Ricardo Ferraço (MDB)
• Rio Grande do Norte: Cadu de Lula (PT), elected over Allyson Bezerra (União)

In Rio de Janeiro, which was due to hold a runoff, Douglas Ruas (PL) had already been confirmed as the winner on Oct. 10, after the TSE excluded votes cast for Anthony Garotinho.

Next steps

Once the count is complete, the TSE will proclaim the result and schedule the certification of winners, usually held in December. Because this is a re-election, there is no handover between administrations. The new term is set to begin on Jan. 5, 2027, the date fixed by Constitutional Amendment 111 of 2021.

What it means for business

The result keeps the current direction of economic policy and puts the 2027 fiscal agenda in focus. Before the vote, asset managers quoted by Times Brasil said part of the market had been positioned for a Flávio win. On Sunday night, the Brazilian real futures contract traded on the CME in Chicago was down more than 9%, according to Bloomberg Línea. Spot currency and stock trading resume on Monday (Oct. 26), when the price adjustment will become clearer. As of publication, our newsroom had not found statements from business associations on the result.